A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
